Relative Perception Differences in Hotness and IQ

When you’re out on the town and want to solely optimize on picking up a woman/man for sex, travel with friends who are slightly less attractive than you. If they’re more attractive than you, you look relatively less hot. If they’re absolutely ugly, you might look relatively good but such relative benefits are outweighed by being associated with ugliness.

When you’re at a meeting or in a professional function and want to solely optimize on being perceived as impressive, travel with the most impressive / smartest friends possible. Unlike in a sexual physical attraction situation, when you’re surrounded by really smart people the net gain is higher than any relative effects of perceived lower intelligence. Why?

One reason is when you’re around smart people they bring out your own intelligence. Active conversation — the interplay of two bright minds (even if the levels of brightness differ) — can raise your own perceived IQ, versus the passive sexual situation where your looks are set in stone from the moment you walk in the bar. Agreed?

Bottom Line: Relative perception effects differ in the sexual atmosphere of a bar than in the intellectual atmosphere of the boardroom.

(hat tip Chris Yeh for helping think through this theory)

Is It Better to Have No Ideas Than False Ones?

Thomas Jefferson is supposed to have said the following:

It is always better to have no ideas than false ones; to believe nothing, than to believe what is wrong.

Now contrast that with this great quote from Teddy Roosevelt:

It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.

Roosevelt seems to imply that it doesn’t necessarily matter what the man in the arena is fighting for, but that he is fighting, and this alone elevates him to a higher pedestal than the spectator.

That’s all fine and well in, say, a sporting event. But apply this logic elsewhere.

Should we think higher of the politician who believes he is fighting for a worthy cause — but a cause we virulently disagree with — than the citizen bystander not running for anything?

Should we respect the person who has taken the time to come up with ideas — but ideas you think are dangerous — more than the person who has produced no ideas at all?

Do you respect the ignorant voter more than the one who chooses not to vote at all?

Lead an Idiosyncratic Life and Envy of Others Goes Down

That “funny feeling” of envy / jealousy only exists when the subject of our envy resembles us in some way. I don’t get jealous if Bill Gates has a big success, but I do get jealous if someone close to me in age / race / location does something very similar to what I’m trying to do. I don’t get jealous if a good friend becomes a marvelously successful chef, but I do get somewhat jealous if he becomes marvelously successful (or at least more successful than me) in my field of choice.

People who lead traditional career paths, then, have more people to compare themselves to. A young attorney has thousands of other attorneys around the same age and pursuing the same type of law against whom he can measure himself.

One reason I think envy is less pronounced in entrepreneurship circles is that entrepreneurs tend to lead idiosyncratic lives. It’s hard for a life entrepreneur to find another person whose path overlaps in a major way. Hence, fewer people seem directly competitive.

This has its downsides. Loneliness. You feel like few people can appreciate how you got here and where you’re going. And you lack easy benchmarks on how you’re doing in life relative to peers.

But there are upsides. You more frequently can Bask in Reflected Glory of your friends’ successes. Your drive to soar higher can come from genuine inspiration at others’ success instead of raw jealousy. The latter can incite action, but the former is more pure and sustainable.

Bottom Line: If you carve a unique path in life, fewer people (especially in your friend set) will seem directly comparable / competitive, and this will allow you to genuinely revel in their successes as opposed to being privately consumed by jealously.

(hat tip to Ramit Sethi for helping spark this theory)

Karl Rove and James Fallows Up-Close

Last year, I did two posts summarizing a few dozen speeches I heard at the Athenaeum, including those by Gregg Easterbrook, Bono, Bill Kristol, Anderson Cooper, Orville Schell, Peter Wehner, Orhan Pamuk, David Gergen, David Brooks, and Jonathan Rosenberg.

This time around I will try to post some of my notes and impressions in real-time, when my thoughts are fresh. Today: Karl Rove and James Fallows.

Karl Rove, former deputy chief of staff in the White House, advisor to George W. Bush

Rove had such a high profile in the Bush administration that most people are predisposed to the guy in one way or another. The usual media accounts call him "Bush’s brain" or "The Architect" — I for one had an image of some evil mastermind tapping his finger tips together while plotting how Republicans can take over the world. In real life he comes across as a normal, folksy, nice guy. There’s something about the flesh which strips larger-than-life figures of their aura.

His speech, which was occasionally supplemented by the din of protesters outside chanting "War Criminal," was long on anecdotes and short on real substance. Usually these types of speech are annoying. But when the anecdotes are, say, how Vladimir Putin melted in awe when he stepped into the historic Oval Office, or the father of a Navy Seal who cried in a meeting with Bush, or just the blow-by-blow "day in the life of the President," you can get away with it. The sheer proximity to power that Rove enjoyed for many years affords him a well of stories that can keep even skeptical audiences entranced.

Rubinkarlrove1h When he did speak on policy issues, he was predictable. History will judge Bush favorably – just look at Truman’s low approval ratings when he left office. Iraq will prove ultimately worthwhile. Etc. In one section he delivered a 3-5 minute non-stop "defense" of the Bush presidency, dwelling on some of the lower-profile Bush initiatives like aid to Africa. In the end all that matters in terms of the Bush legacy is Iraq, but it was interesting how Rove painted a broader picture of the eight years. I don’t blame him for wanting the legacy to rest on ground wider than Iraq.

He also demonstrated subtle political cunning that would be expected of someone in his position. When referring to Obama, he plainly framed Obama’s experience in the Senate as all of "143 working days," not the "two years" that’s often cited. He reviewed the Republican and Democratic parties’ strategies and noted how the Democrats have outspent the Republicans in all the recent elections and will do so again this year. It’s not the points themselves that demonstrate a certain savviness but how he delivered them — by not making them "points" but rather sentences as commonplace as "Nice weather today." It implies a certain unquestioned truthfulness to them, even if they are actually surprising, like in the case of Dems outspending Repubs, or actually damaging, like in the case of Obama’s non-record in the Senate.

All in all, college drop-out Rove struck me as a quick thinker, well versed in all aspects of both the ground warfare that is politics and high level strategy that animates campaigns, a true student of U.S. history, and more personally, somewhat bemused at his standing at go-to punching bag for Bush bashers. Insofar as I understand Rove’s influence in the Bush administration, I can’t say I’m a fan of his policies, but I was happy to see him up close, if only to help me process / rebut / agree with the countless media portrayals.

James Fallows, national correspondent for The Atlantic

There are maybe a half dozen people whose work I always read. James Fallows is one of them. For about four years, I’ve read or skimmed all of his articles in The Atlantic and all his blog posts. There are many smart people writing today. Fallows is different due mostly to his range — aviation to Iraq to economics to technology / software — no stone is left unturned in his reporting. The product of a mind that’s lived at the intersection of ideas and industries consistently stimulates me more than the product of a monoculture / niche. Who else is qualified to interview on-stage (at different times) Bill Clinton and Larry PageFallows and Sergey Brin? Along with interdisciplinary thinking Fallows’ writing style strives for clarity above all. Showboating or literary experimentation rarely enter into the equation and thus never distract from the idea at hand. Finally, unlike many pundits on politics, Fallows actually reports. He’s lived in many countries overseas (currently Beijing), for example, and did a multi-month programming stint at Microsoft to aid in his tech reporting. I love a clever turn of phrase, and adore many Washington columnists, but isn’t it heartening to know that someone is actually immersing himself out there in the big bad world and writing back to us about what’s going on?

Of course, enjoying someone’s writing from afar doesn’t mean you’ll enjoy him in-person. We all know the super successful and super smart asshole. Fallows, by contrast, is a commensurate professional, classy, gracious with his time. He took a genuine interest in students’ ideas, betraying not a hint of condensation. My notes from his talk I re-print below:

  • As a journalist you must talk to people who know more than you about a topic, and then explain it to people who know less than you. Challenging!
  • The Atlantic has the richest readership of any magazine. It’s a "high end" publication. This in some ways will make it endure more the general economic hardship afflicting mainstream media.
  • Vis-a-vis the New Yorker, a competitor, the Atlantic’s entry point to big ideas is via the "conceptual scoop" as opposed to the profile of an individual.
  • Youth: travel and live abroad as much as you can! China wouldn’t be a bad place. A strong, influential China will be part of your adult lives, so see what it looks like and get comfortable with its existence.
  • Speaking of China, there’s no "one China." China is made up of a billion plus individuals and many distinct cultures. We need to recognize it for what it is, rather than one big blob "China."
  • He quoted David Foster Wallace twice — in particular DFW’s brief missive on the meaning of the American idea.
  • "When meeting foreigners I’m impressed by their willingness to be re-seduced by the American idea."
  • What will matter in the presidential debates? The candidates’ temperament and bearing.
  • The "global war on terror" unites factions that would otherwise be not united. Saying "the terrorists" unites terrorists that would otherwise be disparate.
  • We needn’t worry about China militarily. There are greater military worries elsewhere. For now China is still consumed by Taiwan.
  • As a former speechwriter for President Jimmy Carter, Fallows knows how to organize a speech. He laid out the road map for what he was going to talk about over the 40 minute time frame and then regularly gave an update as to where he was ("Ok, that’s point #1, XYZ, now let’s go to point #2 of 4"). In the many keynotes and sales presentations I’ve given I’ve found this a very important rhetorical device to orient the audience and display a command of the clock. Also, during Q&A, Fallows wrote down the questions as they were asked, prior to answering to prevent "Now what was your second question again?" time wasters. I need to do this.
  • His first and main foreign policy point was that the next U.S. administration needs to "think big." This surprised many of us, I think. Most commentators grimly lay out all the international entanglements President Obama or McCain will inherit (and a domestic economic and political situation that’s not much better). Thus, their prescription is, "Hold tight and deal with existing crises." Fallows’ guidance, however, is that we need to think big, fight harder for our ideals. What the "big idea" should be is unclear. During Q&A Fallows said, contra Bush’s 2nd inaugural, it’s not democracy around the world, although it might be "liberty around the world."

The Remarkably Prescient Jim Cramer

I hate Jim Cramer. His stock picking mania on TV horribly misleads individual investors who think they can beat the market. Heck, even he admits that, yet that hasn’t changed his behavior on CNBC.

But I have to say that this clip of Cramer about one year ago saying, "Bernanke has no idea how bad it is out there" and predicting the demise of Wall Street firms and the nuttiness of the mortgage market is remarkably prescient. Of course, Cramer being Cramer, the emotional outburst behind such prediction proves highly entertaining:

Speaking of the Wall Street crises, here are a few links (American Scene, Freakanomics, Daily Dish) that are excellent brief summaries of what is going on.